In recent months, though, their ties have grown notably warmer. This tactical thaw is necessary to survive Trump’s second term in office, but it won’t last. Past grievances and future ambitions will get in the way.
India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US on Feb 12 and his meeting with Trump once again put a spotlight on Beijing-New Delhi relations. No country has been spared from the US president’s tariff regime. He’s imposed 10% levies on Chinese goods and is placing a 25% tax on all steel and aluminium imports. India is among the nations likely to be affected by these latter tariffs.
China’s view of India has evolved through distinct phases. Under Mao Zedong, the relationship went from a suspicious friendship to an intense rivalry. Chinese President Xi Jinping has sought to strike a better balance, remarking on Oct 23 in his most recent meeting with Modi that the two “should become cooperative partners rather than competitive rivals”.
There’s precedent for this. In the 1070s, according to some accounts, an emissary of India’s Chola dynasty brought a trade mission to the Song dynasty in China. As a gesture of goodwill, the Indian envoy scattered precious pearls scooped up in a golden lotus on the floor of the Chinese emperor’s court — a way to highlight how much wealth both empires might create if they worked together. Meanwhile, India’s impression of China is stuck between envy and aspiration. Around two-thirds of Indians surveyed in a 2023 Pew Research Centre report held unfavourable opinions of China.
Both have serious concerns about the direction of US politics, Kanti Bajpai, vice dean and Wilmar Prof of Asian Studies at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, told me. This is particularly the case over its isolationist approach to international relations. “Trump’s America First and what appears to be an ‘America Above Everyone’ policy are rattling Beijing and New Delhi.”
The two began their rapprochement even before Trump was elected last November. In October, they announced a disengagement from the contested Himalayan frontier they each lay claim to, although troops from both sides remain along Line of Actual Control, the site of frequent and often violent incidents.
In 2020, clashes left 20 Indian soldiers dead, along with an unknown number of Chinese troops, marking the most significant fighting between the two powers since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. The violence led India to a ban on scores of Chinese apps, slow approvals for investments and visas, and suspend direct flights. Those issues were resolved on Jan 27 after a meeting between the two sides resulted in a diplomatic breakthrough. Chinese fast fashion app Shein has relaunched in India, under a deal with Indian firm Reliance Retail, and according to local media reports other Chinese apps are also reappearing on play stores.
Avoiding a hot war in a Trumpian era is essential, simply to remove one distraction from their to-do list. Both will need to put aside the “thaw-provoke-repeat” cycle that has defined relations in the past, and focus on areas where they can collaborate.
There are many. India is hugely dependent on China — relying on it for everything from semiconductor chips and engineers in the manufacturing sector to the active pharmaceutical ingredients that go into the medications produced in its vast generic drugs industry. New Delhi needs to secure consistent access to those imports if it wants to become a manufacturing hub and a significant part of global supply chains. Beijing risks being shut out of Western markets, so the potential of a growing Indian middle class is an attractive proposition.
This is all in the short term. Long term, expect the rivalry to worsen. China has brought Pakistan — India’s nemesis — into its orbit through programs like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, unnerving officials in New Delhi. India is acutely aware of the military asymmetry between them, with the People’s Liberation Army one of the largest, most potent and fast-growing in the world.
Another sticking point is the proposed dam in China’s Medog county, a massive hydroelectric project, surpassing even the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest. Originating from the Tibetan Plateau, the waters flow into India as the Brahmaputra River that supports nearly 130 million people and six million ha of farmland. Any disruption to its flow would be devastating.
Most important, though, is the issue of trust: Modi and Xi don’t share a personal rapport, and view each other as strategic competitors. China’s economy is roughly five times bigger. Still, India’s population is expected to grow to 1.7 billion by the 2060s, while China’s is already in decline, according to United Nations estimates. A larger workforce is by no means a guarantee for a powerful economy, but used efficiently it can certainly help — and Beijing is acutely aware of this.
That’s why this tactical thaw will not turn into a strategic shift. Some relationships are simply not built to last. — Bloomberg
- This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
- This article first appeared in The Malaysian Reserve weekly print edition