Yen set for longest losing streak since June on bets BOJ to hold

THE yen was headed for its longest losing streak versus the dollar since June as traders bet that the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising interest rates next week.

The Japanese currency extended losses on Friday, falling 0.6% to 153.48 per dollar, its lowest level since Nov. 26. It’s down a fifth day and is also headed for its worst week in more than two months. 

Bloomberg reported earlier this week that BOJ policymakers see little cost in waiting until January or later to raise rates because there’s a limited risk that inflation might overshoot. They are open to a hike next week depending on economic data and market developments, the report said.

Money markets pared bets on a rate increase this month following the report, and now assign a 16% probability to that outcome. A week ago, the chance of a hike was 64%.

The BOJ’s quarterly Tankan report released on Friday showed confidence among Japan’s large firms remains upbeat, but the data didn’t move rates expectations. 

“We think risks are tilted to a weaker yen,” said Adarsh Sinha, a FX and rates strategist at Bank of America. “The BOJ is in a wait-and-see mode as they assess future US economic policy.”  –BLOOMBERG