AS CLIMATE change is causing more severe and devastating impacts to the Earth’s environment, atmosphere and its inhabitants, serious considerations are being made by a number of countries including ASEAN regarding the role of nuclear power which has seen a sharp shift from being previously considered a controversial energy source to one of key energy source to reach net zero emission goals as witnessed at COP28 in Dubai, the UAE. Twenty-two world leaders had signed a declaration on the need to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 to reach the Paris Agreement target.

This article will share on the progress and development of selected ASEAN member countries of their interest and plans regarding nuclear power.

Flashback to 2007 and 2021

During Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy 2023 (APNE 2023) held in Singapore, Shigeru Kimura special advisor to the President on Energy Affairs, Economic Research Institute of ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Indonesia in his presentation on nuclear energy in ASEAN region outlined that the following countries had considered nuclear energy including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. He highlighted ASEAN’s attitude for nuclear energy for the period 2007 to 2021 in terms of forecast for nuclear power generation and forecast for nuclear power share in the perspectives of business as usual and alternative policy scenario (APS).

Kimura noted that the total power consumption in the ASEAN region reached its highest at 163 TWh in the APS 2011 Outlook, with Vietnam accounting for 52% of this total. Both Indonesia and the Philippines considered nuclear power from 2007 to 2021, while Vietnam had aggressively pursued nuclear power generation but ceased its efforts in 2017.

Kimura also mentioned that following the Fukushima accident on March 11, 2011, ASEAN countries considered the restart of nuclear power plants in Japan. Although Japan was partially successful in restarting some plants, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam decided to phase out nuclear power generation.

Public Acceptance for Nuclear Power

Kimura added that ERIA has conducted research on nuclear power, including public acceptance. During the question-and-answer session, I proposed to Kimura that they consider conducting surveys on politicians’ and investors’ acceptance of nuclear power. These stakeholders, in addition to the public, are crucial in determining whether a nuclear power program can be successfully launched.

Additionally, I requested Kimura to separate responses by gender to monitor trends and acceptance among politicians, investors, and the public.

The Malaysian Experience

Malaysia expressed interest in exploring nuclear energy during the Budget 2009 speech delivered by then-Prime Minister (PM) Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on Aug 29, 2008. Due to the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, which led to a contraction in Malaysia’s economy in 2009, the government — under its Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) launched in 2010 — identified nuclear power as part of the energy sector under OGE.

On Jan 11, 2011 — two months before the Fukushima nuclear meltdown in March 2011 — the government established the Nuclear Energy Planning and Implementing Organisation (NEPIO) and Malaysia Nuclear Power Corp (MNPC) to plan for Malaysia’s introduction of nuclear power.

However, when Malaysia experienced a political upheaval that led to a new government being elected in 2018, former PM Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad firmly announced that Malaysia would not pursue nuclear power.

This decision was supported by then-minister of Energy, Science, Technology, Environment and Climate Change, Yeo Bee Yin, who announced that Malaysia was cancelling all plans for nuclear power, including the projected twin-unit Nuclear Power Plant. Subsequently, MNPC was shut down in September 2019, marking the end of Malaysia’s nuclear power plans.

The Vietnamese Experience

VINATOM Planning and Scientific Management Department director Dr Hoang Sy Than in his presentation on “Nuclear Power in Vietnam: Future Prospects for the Introduction of Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems,” informed that the National Atomic Institute, now known as VINATOM, was established in 1979.

He shared that a study on introducing the first Nuclear Power Programme (NPP) in Vietnam was conducted in 1996. Feasibility studies for the Ninh Thuan 1 (NT1) and NT2 projects were carried out in 2010 and completed in December 2013. However, the National Assembly decided to postpone the NPP projects in November 2016.

Regarding climate change, Hoang noted that Vietnam’s commitment at COP26 was to phase out coal by the 2040s and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Vietnam’s Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) for the period 2021-2030, with a vision extending to 2050 for a clean energy transition, was approved in May 2023. The plan targets increasing the share of renewables to 30.9%-39.2% of the total capacity by 2030 and reducing coal dependency from 32.5% in 2021 to 20% in 2030.

Hoang noted that although PDP8 does not mention nuclear power, he believes that Vietnam may reconsider it.

PDP8, oriented towards 2050, includes plans for a strong transition to renewables, aiming for a share of 67.5%-71.5% and phasing out coal. Hoang outlined a roadmap for introducing nuclear power in Vietnam for the period 2031-2050. This roadmap aims to help Vietnam meet its energy, economic, climate, environmental and security goals, with the operation of Reactor Unit 1 in 2035, Unit 2 (2036) and the implementation of small modular reactors in the 2040s, once these designs are proven to be safe and efficient.

The Philippines Experience

In his presentation on “Why Nuclear Energy is Both Urgent and Imperative for the Philippines,” Nuclear Energy, Philippines House Committee chairman Mark Cojuangco highlighted several key points. He compared the costs associated with shipping different fuels: Shipping 2.5 million tonnes of coal would require 50 Panamax ships and incur an importation cost of US$600 million, whereas the importation of 20 tonnes of nuclear fuel requires only the space of a jeepney and costs US$20 million.

He also noted that the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in the Philippines, with a capacity of 620MW, needs 48 fuel assemblies for 18 months. This amount of fuel, weighing less than 20 tonnes, can fit into the volume of a small truck.

Philippine Nuclear Research Institute director Dr Carlo Arcilla addressed “Nuclear Energy in the Philippines: Developments and Challenges” in his presentation. He outlined several factors driving the Philippines’ interest in nuclear power, including extremely high electricity rates (the highest in Asia) and the need to enhance energy security.

Currently, 50% of the country’s electricity comes from coal, with 90% of that coal imported from Indonesia. Additionally, the Malampaya gas field, which supplies 20% of the country’s energy, is depleting. Nuclear power is seen as a potential solution to provide baseload backup for intermittent renewable energy sources.

Arcilla explained that as the Malampaya gas field is expected to deplete in five years, and given the sharp rise in LNG prices from US$10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to US$281 MMBtu between 2020 and 2021, nuclear energy is envisioned as the best replacement option for LNG.

Furthermore, this significant price escalation, which has contributed to rising electricity costs, may explain why 79% of the Philippine population supports nuclear power, according to the DOE Survey of 2019.

Arcilla also said Executive Order 164, signed by then-President Rodrigo Duterte on Feb 28, 2022, adopted a national position for a nuclear energy programme and other related purposes. This order marks the beginning of including nuclear power in the energy mix and developing nuclear power infrastructure.

These developments highlight that several ASEAN member countries initially showed interest in nuclear power, with some later losing interest, while a few are now reigniting their interest.

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Sheriffah Noor Khamseah Al-Idid Syed Ahmad Idid
Innovation and Nuclear Advocate
Alumna, Imperial College, University of London, UK