THE rumour mills and political grapevines are tingling yet again, of a potential re-alignment of the nation’s political alliances.
Though the talks have yet to take form, they centre on the need for a new political alignment for one particular reason – that the present Government is incapable of reaching out to the Malay Muslim majority despite numerous efforts being put to that end.
It is also an admission somewhat, that despite Umno being part of the Government, it had not been able to deliver the Malay Muslim votes and in fact, its base is diminishing by the minute.
The results of the Sungai Bakap by-election last month, though being down-played by the ruling coalition of its significance, affirmed that the ruling pact had not been able to regain any of the Malay Muslim ground and is actually losing more, especially for Umno.
To add to its woes, it is also not doing too well with the non-Malay voters, considered safe deposits in the past few polls as the communities seemed unhappy with the way the current leadership is treating them, hence their staying away from voting.
For the Opposition, despite enjoying solid support from the Malay Muslim base, their relations are also said to be somewhat testy and their Members of Parliament are finding it difficult to fund their constituencies added to the speculation.
And that a draft of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) concerning allocations for Opposition members of Parliament was sent today is likely to further fuel the speculation.
If Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim manages to draw the support of the Perikatan Nasional in whatever form, it would be touted as a success in uniting the Malays.
How it would pan out with the DAP and Anwar’s own Parti Keadilan Rakyat is anybody’s guess. But if the ease of their supporters accepting Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his Umno is any measure, working out some sort of collaboration with the PN should not be too difficult.
If Pakatan Harapan (PH) could accept Zahid and Umno despite their campaign being “No Zahid and No Umno” while Zahid and Umno were able to accept Anwar and the DAP despite their campaign being “No Anwar No DAP”, would the nation be witnessing a similar stunt being pulled with the PN?
While the DAP and PKR, with Amanah tagging along, had shown their preparedness to compromise and renege on their electoral pledge in the quest for power, the question is whether PN, PAS especially, is prepared to do likewise.
It may be argued that PAS was actually the original partner of PH’s predecessor, Pakatan Rakyat, which proved formidable in the 2008 and 2013 national polls, and it should not be that difficult for it to renew some kind of collaboration if not an outright pact.
On the flip side, much water had flowed under the bridge since and the break-up which was quite bitter and the faction in PAS which favoured remaining in the PR and later PH, had also left PAS and formed Amanah, the splinter. That split too was very rancorous.
Umno, though an important factor in ensuring PH’s path to power, is not in the position to make any demand or bargain, at least not for their current crop of leaders.
Bersatu of PN seemed quite fragile and dependent very much on PAS’ political machinery, which will also not factor much into the equation.
The question is what would be the basis of any collaboration especially when the narrative in the rivalry between the ruling pact and PN are premised on the former being liberal, DAP-controlled and all for multi-racialism, to be read as not in favour of Malay Muslim primacy.
The PN on the other hand is painted as indulging in religiosity bordering on extremism, bigoted and insistence on Malay/Islam as the pillar in all aspects of the nation.
Simply put, the polarity is too direct and too contentious of each other. It is not a matter of stomaching a few compromises as any collaboration will impeach on matters of principles.
Given the contradictoriness of the two, an outright pact or collaboration may not be feasible at this point in time.
Though the ruling coalition may brag of having a comfortable majority if not a two-thirds, a confidence and supply agreement may be the option though the Westminster system usually adopts such an agreement when it is a minority government whereby the Opposition would support the Government’s budget bill.
Such support, though a matter of expediency and convenience, would go a long way for an embattled Government which is losing grip of its direction and sense of purpose.
It is afflicted with the disease that it cannot do anything right and any attempt to remedy it would result in everything it did is wrong.
Its popularity has nose-dived and the fact that it was a government formed through a post-electoral pact does not help its cause.
The speculation obviously emerged from it being embattled and its leaders had become vulnerable and exposed, proven incapable, surviving on rhetoric and on several occasions, caught lying. With their bluff called, it is speculated that they are desperate.
And desperate times call for desperate measures.
- Shamsul Akmar is an editor at The Malaysian Reserve.