China tourists? Don’t hold your breath

THE outbound China tourists are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels only in late 2025, according to a research house.

China tourist flows to Asean have recovered to only 38% of pre-pandemic levels in November 2023, as “revenge travel” remained hotter at home than abroad, according to a report by Maybank IBG Research.

It attributed the wide disparity to consumer belt-tightening amid a weak economic climate,  limited international flight capacity, which led to pricey airfares for overseas routes, and perceived bottlenecks in visa applications.

In 2024, it added that the higher flight capacity, lower fares and waiver of visas for Chinese citizens will support a more decisive tourism recovery.

The report noted that other countries are emerging as important markets, cushioning and replacing the gap from a sluggish China recovery.

India tourists are in the top five and account for larger market shares in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. Koreans have overtaken China as the number one market in Vietnam, and remain number one in the Philippines.

Indonesians have overtaken China as the number one market in Singapore. Malaysians have leapfrogged China as the number one in Thailand.

“We expect visitor arrivals to fall short of 2019 pre-pandemic levels in all ASEAN6 countries in 2024. A full recovery will only take place in 2025. Government targets in the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia may be too optimistic,” it said.

On hotel occupancy rates, the report noted that Malaysia’s rate was still about 10% points below pre-pandemic rate in 2Q23, but may have picked up in 3Q and 4Q, while rates in Thailand and Singapore have climbed to relatively high and close to pre-pandemic levels. – TMR