Deepening divides within multicultural society spark concerns about potential long-term impact on national unity 

by RADZI RAZAK / pic MUHD AMIN NAHARUL

AS BALLOT counting proceeded after the closure of polling booths on Aug 12, Malaysia found itself in the midst of critical state elections. 

The multi-coalition government under Prime Minister (PM) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was striving to solidify its stance against a formidable Opposition using pro-Islam and pro-Malay stance. 

With approximately 9.7 million eligible voters, the elections were set to determine the future governments of six states: Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu in the north under the Opposition-held Perikatan Nasional (PN); and Negri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor, where the government parties of the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-led coalition held sway. 

Optimistic about their prospects, PN aimed to capture Selangor – a state that had been the crown jewel of PH since 2008 – and make inroads in Penang and Negri Sembilan. They termed this endeavour a “referendum” against the unity government. 

However, an underwhelming voter turnout across the six states could potentially have the most pronounced impact on PM Anwar and his unity government. Experts noted that the lacklustre participation might be particularly felt after a campaign in which the Opposition depicted Anwar as neglectful of the Malay-Muslim majority. The Opposition had harnessed platforms like TikTok to amplify an Islamist agenda. 

As the vote was counted throughout the night, it was clear that the outcomes of these state contests would have limited direct consequences on Anwar’s federal power grip. 

Nonetheless, the election results were poised to serve as a barometer of support for him and his diverse coalition administration — a mix of allies and former adversaries — in a politically volatile nation known for the precariousness of its governments. 

Diminished Engagement 

Dr Briget Welsh, a prominent political observer, directed her gaze towards the evolving political landscape. Her analysis spotlighted a discernible dip in voter turnout during the recent Malaysia state election. 

The data indicated a slide from 79% participation in the preceding 15th General Election (GE15) to 70% in the state polls — a substantial and significant 9% decrease. This trend of diminished engagement was evident across various communities, signifying a broader waning of interest in the electoral process. 

Drilling down into the demographic makeup, longstanding trends persisted. Malays accounted for the highest estimated turnout at 70%, followed by Indians at approximately 69% and Chinese at roughly 65%, compared to 80%, 84% and 75% respectively in November last year. 

Thus, a more troubling aspect emerged: A palpable lack of enthusiasm for the available electoral choices which indicated a wider disenchantment among voters with the options presented to them. 

An especially significant observation emerged from the election results: PN exhibited uneven gains within the Malay demographic across different states. Notably, these gains were most pronounced in Kedah and least evident in Negeri Sembilan. In the latter state, Umno secured victory in 14 seats, often with slender margins and, in conjunction with PH, they collectively managed to capture approximately 43% of the Malay vote. 

Welsh’s analysis also highlighted a disconcerting trend — a rise in ethnic polarisation within voting patterns. 

She cautioned against this divisive racial schism, particularly among the Malay community, which was further exacerbated by PN’s use of racially charged mobilisation strategies in their campaigns. This approach was seen as a contributor to deepening divides within the multicultural society, sparking concerns about its potential long-term impact on national unity. OK

Slim Majorities 

Despite these concerning trends, the aftermath of the election suggested that the impact might be more contained than initially feared. In fact, the PH coalition’s losses in Selangor were primarily concentrated in six seats, often with slim majorities, frequently under 1,000 votes. 

A detailed analysis of these constituencies revealed that PN secured victory in four seats with margins ranging from a mere 30 votes to 407 votes. More specifically narrow losses in the four seats, namely 912 votes in Ijok, 877 votes in Bukit Melawati, 167 votes in Sungai Kandis and 58 votes in Gombak Setia. 

When amalgamating the results from these six constituencies, the PH coalition’s cumulative loss amounted to a slender 2,451 votes. This modest margin suggested that the impact was relatively restricted within the broader electoral landscape. On average, each of these six state assemblies witnessed PH’s defeat by a margin of only 409 votes. 

Significantly, Selangor PH chairman Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari emphasised their proactive efforts to counter the momentum of the “green wave”, alluding to the shifting voter trends from November 2022 to the August 2023 elections. This assessment shed light on PH’s strategic manoeuvres, aimed at maintaining their standing in the face of a challenging electoral environment. 

A notable takeaway from the state elections was the failure of Barisan Nasional (BN), represented solely by Umno, to retain its voters. Many of them either migrated to PN or demonstrated reluctance to participate in the voting process. 

It must also be noted that the two seats they won in Selangor — Sungai Air Tawar and Dusun Tua — were likely due to PH voters because in November, PN seemed to have the edge. 

In conclusion, the recent Malaysia state election unveiled a substantial decrease in voter turnout and illuminated the prevalence of ethnic polarisation within voting patterns. The electoral choices prompt apprehensions about the long-term unity of the multicultural nation. 

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• This article first appeared in The Malaysian Reserve weekly print edition