PH to most likely to win largest vote share, says YouGov

The data was collected by interviewing a total of 2,687 Malaysian citizens across Malaysia between Nov 8 and Nov 14, 2022


THE 15th General Election (GE15) is unlikely to produce a clear winner, although Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) is most likely to win with the largest share of the votes (35%), British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm YouGov said.

The firm noted that Perikatan Nasional (PN), a coalition of former Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s party and PAS, are set to pick up 20% of the votes, with incumbent Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s Barisan Nasional (BN) trailing at 17%.

The data was collected by interviewing a total of 2,687 Malaysian citizens across Malaysia between Nov 8 and Nov 14, 2022.

According to YouGov Asia Pacific head of public affairs and polling Dr Campbell White, while PH is likely to perform well in urban parts of Malaysia, the substantially lower number of voters required to win a seat in rural electorates where BN and PN are likely to perform well means that the Parliament is likely to be very complex.

“That is not even taking into account the states of Sabah and Sarawak, where local coalitions which have split from BN in the last term can do well in terms of seats on relatively small shares of the national vote.

“The risk for PN and BN is that a conservative, predominantly Bumiputera vote will be split in Peninsular Malaysia, under the ‘first-past-the-post’ system,” White said in a statement today.

YouGov said when it came to voter views towards political figures specifically, Muhyiddin appeared to hold the best impression, with one in three (33%) feeling positively toward him.

It added that he has a narrow lead over Anwar (29%), while Ismail Sabri is less popular than either of his two main opponents, with 22% expressing a positive view and 30% negative.

Meanwhile, YouGov pointed out that fewer held positive impressions of PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang (16%) and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad (14%), with the greatest proportion of voters holding negative impressions toward the latter (44%).

It noted that voters were also asked about the issues of greatest importance this election, where cost of living dominated, with both rising costs of goods and services and income ranking highly.

Rising costs of goods and services came up tops (51%), followed by government integrity (38%). 

Both issues were of even greater consideration among older voters above the age of 50 (60% for rising costs of goods and services; 51% for government integrity).

Income was the topic of third greatest importance (37%), and more paramount among younger voters between the ages of 18-34 (47%).

Close to three in 10 voters prioritised stability (28%), while one in five held protection of Bumiputera rights in high regard (22%).

Education, employment, income inequality, reducing discrimination, healthcare, candidate suitability and housing affordability made up the middle ground, while environmental issues, personal freedoms and crime were of least concern at this time (5% each).


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