GRS, GPS likely kingmaker to form federal govt

Both parties’ influence is more than 50% as of now, giving them stronger negotiating power

by ANIS HAZIM

WITH the polls just over a week away, Malaysia’s eastern states of Sabah and Sarawak are seen as crucial constituencies for any coalition looking to form the country’s next government.

Both Sabah and Sarawak hold a quarter of Malaysia’s total parliamentary seats, hence, any coalition they choose to support will almost certainly form the government.

The big three coalitions that dominated politics in Malaysia, namely Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) have been campaigning in the Borneo states, seeking alliance with parties from Sabah and Sarawak in order to win a majority in the 15th General Election (GE15).

Universiti Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections socio-political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will be the “kingmaker” if they could win big in GE15.

“A GRS-BN coalition needs to win 23 seats in Sabah, while GPS needs to win 26 seats in Sarawak if they want to be a real decisive force,” Awang Azman told The Malaysian Reserve (TMR).

According to him, the influence of GRS in Sabah and GPS in Sarawak is more than 50% as of now, giving them a better chance of being the kingmaker.

The analyst also sees the possibility for GRS and GPS to work with BN or PH which is seen as a large political bloc with a promising future.

“The two deputy prime minister (DPM) positions may also be the rewards, besides the 1963 Malaysia Agreement (MA63) as well as other promises for allocation to develop the states from time to time,” he added.

Recently, BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his PH counterpart Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced that they are giving Sabah or Sarawak a DPM of their own, as part of the party’s manifesto.

However, Parti Warisan information chief Datuk Azis Jamman said that Sabah would rather have MA63 to be returned instead of the DPM position.

According to Azis, Warisan president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal was offered twice the DPM position by the PN government, led by former PM Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s administration.

Therefore, the big three coalitions promised to realise Sabah and Sarawak’s MA63 which was agreed upon a long time ago among Sabah, Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia (formerly known as the Federation of Malaya) during the formation of Malaysia.

The full implementation of MA63 is expected to restore Sabah and Sarawak’s equal partnership with the peninsula, increasing royalties for revenue of natural resources as well as increasing administrative rights.

Meanwhile, political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Jeniri Amir said that the MA63 and DPM positions need to be fulfilled as it has been promised previously.

“I think it is very important for any parties that are going to form a government to ensure that they will fulfil the MA63, or anything that will be signed in the Inter-Governmental Committee Report (IGC) 1962,” he told TMR.

On the potential kingmaker in the eastern state, the analyst said that both GPS and GRS are well-known and have strong support from the Borneans.

“Of course, from the Sarawak side, it is definitely GPS. It is a foregone conclusion based on the fact that GPS is the most popular party now in Sarawak. While in Sabah, GRS will definitely be the kingmaker,” he said.

In the 2021 Sarawak state election, Jeniri noted that GPS won 76 out of 82 seats, thus, he foresees that this time around GPS will be able to win at least 25 seats.

He also sees a low chance for the alliances in the peninsula to win more than one parliamentary seat in Sabah and Sarawak if they have no support from any Borneo parties.

“I think GPS would not work with PH, they will work with either BN or PN. This is very simple, as long as the Democratic Action Party (DAP) is in there (PH), GPS would not work with PH, while GRS will definitely work with BN,” he added.

Sharing the same views, Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub sees a huge potential for GPS and GRS to win the Borneo seats in GE15.

“I am confident in GPS and GRS because they have their own sentiments — although there was an effort from the peninsula to tear down GRS before — however, it did not succeed as Sabahans’ sentiments are still at the border level.

“Regardless of what happens at the federal level or the national level, they (Sabah) continue to work together,” Mohammad Tawfik said to TMR.

For example, he noted that Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, who is also the GRS chairman, previously said that GRS will continue to support BN.

“So, this illustrates the strength of Sabah and Sarawak as they do not follow the ‘political game’ from the peninsula,” he said.

Meanwhile, the analyst sees the potential for GRS to be the kingmaker in forming the federal government following the GE15 on Nov 19.

“GPS won a lot of seats in GE14, so this is actually the determinant of the competition between PN and PH in the upcoming GE15,” he said.

He also noted that the coalitions in the peninsula are currently eyeing GPS to help them to form the government as GRS was not in the frame due to its coalition with BN.

“Therefore, we see with the offer by the peninsula’s coalition, like BN who is already trying to get an influence from Borneo by offering two DPM candidates,” he noted.

He sees that the DPM offer is lucrative for both Sabah and Sarawak as it will give access to the Borneans to address any issues or rights as well as in developing the states.

“As we see, Sabah and Sarawak are not like other states in the peninsula. So, of course, they want something different, and the DPM position must not only be a symbol but it also must have real power,” he said.

Furthermore, he sees BN as the potential peninsula coalition that both GRS and GPS would want to work with compared to PH and PN.

“In Sabah, I see that they are comfortable working with BN. Meanwhile, in Sarawak, GPS is fiercely competing with DAP and PKR, so it is difficult for GPS to provide support for PH to form the federal government,” he concluded.


  • This article first appeared in The Malaysian Reserve weekly print edition