Generational loss to swinging politicians

Sorely missing from the political scene is Gen-X, whose participation is severely limited due to the baby boomers

A PROMINENT banker and former parliamentarian lamenting the state of the county made an obvious and overwhelmingly underrated observation: All problems besieging this beloved nation of ours could be solved if the over-antiquated politicians care to finally put the interest of Malaysians first over theirs, by retiring.

These politicians, who have been at it since the past quarter century – were disruptive and are still disrupting the market — making it impossible for leaders from multiple succeeding generations to break through to prove their worth in serving their respective parties and country.

In the end, the voters are restricted to the same old offerings to make Malaysia great again, from personalities of the same mould and belief.

Since 1997. The same year Tony Blair, at 44 years of age, was elected to lead the UK as the youngest prime minister (PM) in over one and a half-century.

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was the fourth PM and Umno president, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was his deputy, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was a former Umno VP and Cabinet minister, while Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was the head of Umno Youth Movement with Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob as one of his divisional leaders.

The fallout from the Thai baht’s devaluation later during the year sent the ringgit into a tailspin and the political scene into turmoil as Dr Mahathir responded to Anwar’s challenge to the top post. The street politics of Reformasi was established, Anwar went to jail and so did Ahmad Zahid (albeit briefly), and Dr Mahathir held on to power backed by party supportersers including Muhyiddin and Ismail Sabri.

Subsequently, in the 10th General Election (GE10) of 1999, Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) barely retained their two third majority by the skin of their teeth and Dr Mahathir held on for another three-plus years before relinquishing the post in 2003.

Fast forward to 2022. The UK is yet again, in the form of 42 year-old Rishi Sunak, helmed by another record-youngest PM in more than two centuries — since 1783.

In Malaysia, the plot has spawned into a behemoth of a scheme with the aforementioned 1997 players still dominating the political sphere. Each has nominated themselves or their proxy as the PM candidate for the big four political coalitions: Dr Mahathir for Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), Anwar for PKR/Pakatan Harapan (PH), Muhyiddin for Bersatu/Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Ismail Sabri, with Ahmad Zahidi firmly behind as the crafty president, for Umno/BN.

With the exception of Dr Mahathir — who, at 97 years of age, holds his own ground as the oldest and the only nonagenarian in active politics — the rest of the parties are led by the Baby Boomers of 75-year-olds (Anwar and Muhyiddin), 69-year-old Ahmad Zahid and 62-year-old Ismail Sabri.

How will this shape the voting pattern in GE15?

The current difference in terms of age of the proposed leadership and the general voting population is so huge that it would be fatal to neglect the median years between different generations.

Of the total 21.179 million voters on the GE15 electoral roll, around 29% or 6.233 million are new voters including the automatic registrations and Undi18. And almost half of them (48%) or approximately 10.16 million, are young voters between 18 and 39 years of age belonging to Y-Generation/Millennials and Z-Generation/Zoomers.

Sorely missing from the political scene is X-Generation, whose participation is severely limited due to the congestion of the baby boomers.

Based on various surveys and intel, the BN coalition is confident of winning at least 65 seats, even with the new voting group remaining a wildcard, as one huge impediment in the form of a former chairman remains incarcerated at Kajang prison.

It will already be a huge improvement from the current 42 seats they’re holding, but since the Malay voters are mostly biased on leadership (44%) and issues (23%) and less on party (13%), observers are expecting them to break PH’s current dominance (78 seats) by a marginal two constituencies if the chairman is willing to take a back seat due to his ongoing legal issues.

On PH’s side, DAP seems to have acknowledged the restlessness of the business community and is expecting to lose six to eight seats as a margin of the Chinese community is warming back towards the old BN-styled stability.

But it could be much worse if PKR misread the sentiment on the ground and instead of strengthening the base, went all out to tackle the Malay heartland which was never their forte in the first place.

A clear case in hand — PKR’s recent decision to field the late PAS spiritual leader Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat’s son, Nik Omar, in Perak. It could offer a marginal gain for Malay support but under the current circumstances where the other son, Nik Abduh, is more prominent, it would be disastrous for the coalition in a state where the non-Malay population is well above the national average.

There will be minimal protest vote this time around, and with the tailwind of recent state polls, it will be very hard to stem the tide at the national polls.

Whichever way GE15 is going to lean to, democracy will still be the winner as no clear dominance is expected from either coalitions. The loss, however, will be on the X-Generation, who will never get to be represented on the PM roster. Whether their absence will make an impact to a vote sway will be purely academic as the refractory seniors, a week away from nomination day, are still refusing to make way.

For the time being, we’ll have to contend with the historical fact that Malaysia had a semblance of trust in youthful exuberance as the late Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, way back in 1970, was appointed to office at 48 years of age.

And what a refreshing, glorious era it was. — pic TMR FILE