CONSERVATIVE MPs on Wednesday will decide which two candidates face off in the battle to replace Boris Johnson as UK prime minister (PM), with Foreign Secretary Liz Truss now the favorite to join Rishi Sunak in the final ballot.
The result of the fifth and final ballot of Tory MPs will be announced at 4pm on Wednesday. At stake is a chance for the candidates to put their case to the Conservative Party grassroots over the remainder of the summer. Those members will vote for their next leader — and PM, with an announcement due Sept 5.
Candidate 4th vote 3rd vote 2nd vote 1st vote
Penny Mordaunt 92 82 83 67
Liz Truss 86 71 64 50Ahead of the vote, Truss and Mordaunt are battling to win the support of the all-important 59 MPs who had backed Kemi Badenoch, the contender from the right of the party who was knocked out Tuesday. The Foreign Secretary now trails Mordaunt by just six votes, and is a more natural fit to win over those MPs.
Supporters of both Truss and Mordaunt were quick to praise Badenoch, who’s held several junior ministerial posts while never serving in the cabinet. Mordaunt praised Badenoch’s “fresh thinking and bold policies.”
But the reality is it will be a challenge for her to win over many of Badenoch’s backers. The trade minister comes from the One Nation centrist wing of the Tory party, and Badenoch is firmly on the right. The two contenders sparred in television debates on issues such as Mordaunt’s record on transgender rights.
Badenoch is also seen as a close ally of Sunak, and some of her supporters, such as former Leveling Up Secretary Michael Gove, may switch over to him. Badenoch herself may make an announcement on who she is supporting before Wednesday’s vote.
If Badenoch’s backers divide up largely between Sunak and Truss, then the foreign secretary should be able to overcome her deficit to Mordaunt and clinch second place.
But the voting intentions of Tory MPs in leadership contests are always complex and unpredictable, and there have been accusations of tactical voting and vote-lending over the past few days.
It is possible that Sunak has built such a commanding lead in terms of supporters that he might lend votes to whoever he perceives to be the weaker candidate, most likely Mordaunt. Sunak’s team deny any game-playing and insist they are fighting for every vote.
Truss’ improved hopes of reaching the final two were reflected in the betting odds offered by UK bookmakers after Tuesday’s vote. Ladbrokes made her the even favorite to emerge as the eventual victor, with Sunak close behind at 5-to-4. Mordaunt, who only a few days ago herself was the favorite, is now rated a 7-to-1 chance.
The latest YouGov poll of Conservative members Tuesday suggested that Sunak would lose against either Truss or Mordaunt, although members’ opinions appear volatile and could easily change over the coming campaign. — Bloomberg