The coalition stands a good chance for another victory due to the presence of the new and smaller parties in the state polls
Pic By MUHD AMIN NAHARUL
WITH just three days to go before the Johor state election, the odds seem to favour Barisan Nasional (BN) to emerge victorious.
For the first time in Johor, 10 political parties and coalitions along with numerous independent candidates will be contesting for a spot in the 56-seat legislative assembly.
In total, there are 239 electoral candidates which means the margin for victory will be very slim among the contenders.
While the two main contenders are BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH), the other political parties play a crucial role in determining the results.
In fact, BN should be grateful to parties like Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda), Parti Warisan Sabah and others as indirectly, they are strategically assisting in splitting the Opposition votes.
This is very similar to what happened in Melaka where Perikatan Nasional (PN) caused a split in votes.
With this split in votes, BN actually only won 38% of the popular vote, but managed to grab nearly two-thirds of the seats. PH got 37% and PN managed 25%.
So, basically though BN may be unpopular among the majority of voters, they again stand a good chance for victory due to the presence of these smaller parties.
Political observers can attest to this as many have commented that the more candidates there are in each state constituency, the bigger the advantage for BN in securing its mandate.
While BN may have its vote bank of loyalists, the Opposition vote will be divided by the new parties that have formed since the 2018 General Election (GE14).
There is not a single straight fight in Johor and the bulk of the 35 four-cornered contests are in the Malay majority and some semi-urban seats, where BN is confident it can win.
In the previous GE14, BN lost the state after it only managed to secure 18 seats.
So, the “End Game” is that BN has not really regained the confidence of voters, but instead should bow and thank the “Avengers” like PBM, Muda, Warisan and the other smaller parties for swinging things in their favour.
Alex Chung
Alor Gajah, Melaka
The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the stand of the newspaper’s owners and editorial board.
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