Moody’s analytics expects Malaysia’s economy to rebound in Q4


KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s fourth-quarter growth is expected to rebound on the back of a strong export performance, as well as a pick up in private consumption as borders reopen, Moody’s Analytics said.

It said the record-breaking budget for 2022 would also help cushion the recovery as the economy emerges from the tail end of the pandemic.

“Malaysia’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 3.6 per cent over the quarter, well below market expectations.

“This latest reading marks the second consecutive quarterly contractions, with lockdown measures deepening the slowdown from the second quarter,” it said in its Asia Pacific Economic Preview for the week of  Nov 15–19, 2021.

Growth in the September quarter was weighed down by strict COVID-19 movement control orders following a wave of Delta-variant COVID-19 cases.

“Domestic consumption, which contributes to two-thirds of the GDP, was hit by measures which shut non-essential businesses and restricted social activities and dining out while retail sales have been declining in yearly terms since June, although we expect spending to pick up towards the year-end holiday season,” Moody’s Analytics said.

It expects Malaysian exports to buffer some of the decline in the domestic economy.

However, a stronger 11.7 per cent yearly rise in imports (compared to a 5.1 per cent increase in exports) led to an overall decline in net exports.

“Nonetheless, the economic outlook is bright,” it said.