The AUKUS deal potentially has implications beyond this region, because in essence the three nation security pact involves the convergence of powers from two to three oceans — from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and to the Pacific Ocean.
Gilang Kembara, a Researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Indonesia’s capital of Jakarta told Bernama, hence, its implications is not limited to this region or South China Sea only.
“With the capability, Australia will receive in the future, I think any implication not just limited to the South China Sea, but any area where the capabilities allowed them to operate. Perhaps, with the nuclear submarine Australia can operate, they could just pop up anywhere within the Pacific or the Indian Ocean,” he said via a Google Meet interview, recently.
As the recent partnership deal greatly impacts the South China Sea littoral states, he felt that ASEAN must keep adhering to what has been in their charter – the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN).
Announced by United States (US) President Joe Biden on Sept 15, the new Indo-Pacific security alliance with United Kingdom and Australia will allow for greater sharing of defence capabilities — including helping equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
The partnership covers cooperation on artificial intelligence, cyber and quantum technologies, and undersea capabilities — apparently aimed at countering China’s rising power in the Indo-Pacific region.
Elaborating further, Gilang pointed out, therefore, the 10-member regional bloc should take baby steps at least in order to keep engaged with the parties involved on the AUKUS formation and to protect their interest.
“It is very hard to view the readiness of ASEAN vis-a-vis the potential conflict in the South China Sea with the current geopolitical dynamics, but in my opinion…the situation in the South China Sea would and should remain stable so long as the ASEAN member states along with China pursue a diplomatic approach in solving their differences.
“In the sense that when the relationship between China and other non-ASEAN member states or external partners (such as the US, UK and Australia) deteriorates, I do not think it should be a reason for conflict within this region.
“We (ASEAN) certainly do not invite conflict, and we don’t see the necessity or benefit from such conflict,” said Gilang.
Gilang highlighted, therefore, for ASEAN to further protect its interest the regional organisation should implement the “ASEAN+1” mechanisms, instead of having everyone sitting around the same table like in the East Asia Summit (EAS).
With the latest participation of the UK as ASEAN’s new dialogue partner, such mechanisms can be used to help ease tensions.
“It is better to pursue them in separate rooms; the ASEAN+1 for example, ASEAN needs to engage China through its own room, and ASEAN should also deal with the US through another separate room.
“ASEAN+1 with China could also be engaged through the other Northeast Asian states, as well as in the ASEAN+3, whilst with the US, similar mechanisms could be created.
“It would be a very private sort of conversation and dealing, in order (at least) for both actors could consider each others proposals very well. With the three AUKUS member states now within ASEAN’s reach, this is actually a new and interesting development that we can see in ASEAN’s diplomatic mechanism,” added Gilang.
The UK became ASEAN’s 11th dialogue partner on Aug 4 this year, ending the association’s 25-year moratorium on new dialogue partners.
When asked about the possibility of ASEAN playing the role of mediator in solving the AUKUS alliance issue, Gilang said this would be best determined through the ASEAN chairmanship. –BERNAMA/ ic by AFP