China PMI data released on Sunday showed the official manufacturing PMI declined to a worse than expected 50.6
HONG KONG • Asia’s factory managers remained downbeat about the world’s trade engines in May, even as battered economies start to reopen across the region.
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for South Korea, Japan and Taiwan fell, according to data released by IHS Markit Ltd yesterday. Readings for India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philip- pines improved but remained below 50, the dividing line between contraction and expansion.
China PMI data released on Sunday showed the official manufacturing PMI declined to a worse than expected 50.6. There was better news yesterday in the Caixin PMI, an index more focused on smaller export-orientated firms, which rose to 50.7 from 49.4.
The factory data underscore the fragile and uneven recovery expected in Asia as prospects continue to weaken for countries in the northeast.
Northeast Asia “has had more success in containing the virus, which has led to quicker recovery in mobility and bodes well for domestic demand, but they still have to contend with a very weak
external environment and a potential downturn in the semiconductor sector”, said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South-East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd in Singapore.
High-frequency figures recently have shown an uptick in global demand, with risks that the recovery across economies will be uneven without a vaccine for the coronavirus.
Manufacturing gauges are signalling more relief so far than services sectors, with governments only now beginning to ease lockdowns and allow for more mobility of consumers.
India, which started to lift the strictest stay-at-home rules in late April, saw its manufacturing sector recover a bit, though business conditions remained weak and companies cut staff. The manufacturing PMI rose to 30.8 in May from 27.4 in April, but remained well in contraction territory for the second straight month.
In South Korea, a bellwether for global trade, exports posted another double-digit decline in May. Overseas shipments fell 24% from a year earlier, the Trade Ministry said yesterday, compared to economists’ forecast of a 25% contraction.
For now, there appear to be few signs of a turnaround in South Korea’s exports without broader global demand also picking up.
“It seems unlikely that conditions will allow for a robust pick-up in demand any time soon,” IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said in a statement. “Below-capacity operating rates will also essentially cap potential growth in the near term.” — Bloomberg