SEOUL • South Korean President Moon Jae-in (pic) is seeking a deal with North Korea in 2020 to bring about the “complete denuclearisation” of the isolated nation in return for a peace treaty that would guarantee the survival of Kim Jong Un’s regime.
Moon, an advocate of dialogue and exchange with North Korea, set out his ambitious goal yesterday in a special presidential Blue House report outlining his objectives for his five-year term. While the government this week proposed talks with Pyongyang, it’s the first time the new president has provided a timeline for his engagement policy.
“We will come up with a negotiation plan for comprehensive denuclearisation that will lead a nuclear freeze to a complete dismantling” of weapons, the Blue House said in the report, which stated Moon would propose a road map this year. “The treaty will be signed when denuclearisation is complete and the peace regime will be maintained in a stable way.”
Moon, who took office on May 10, is looking to ease tensions over Kim’s pursuit of a nuclear missile capable of striking the US mainland. His Defence Ministry last Friday offered talks with Pyongyang, while the National Red Cross floated preparatory discussions for reunions of families split by the 1950-53 Korean War.
While his olive-branch approach doesn’t differ greatly from US President Donald Trump’s policy of maximum pressure and engagement, the devil will be in the details, according to analyst Ralph Cossa.
“Moon apparently has Trump’s support in playing a lead role in dealing with the North,” Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, said before the statement was released. “Both have agreed to a mix of pressure and dialogue but neither is an end in itself. The end is changing North Korea behaviour, and the prospects of that remain very slim.”
Cossa added that Moon’s desire to take the lead on nuclear discussions is “a total non-starter” for Kim, who is seeking discussions with the US as it is also a nuclear power. North Korea has signalled a willingness to consider Moon’s overtures, but has voiced scepticism about the prospects for a breakthrough.
The reclusive state has yet to respond to Moon’s demilitarisation timetable.
North Korea is likely to agree to military talks by suggesting an alternative date and “there are a few easy carrots for Moon to offer, such as an end to propaganda broadcasts and balloons”, said Cossa. The sticking point is that Kim will want more than Moon can promise, such as an end to the South Korea-US joint military drills. — Bloomberg